Of the many subjects that are up in the air now, the economy
is the one most globally commented upon. In the space of just three months, the
public mood has gone from sanguinity to doubt. The 'public mood' in India, one
must hasten to explain, radiates from just about 100 million or so Indians—not
necessarily,the well-to-do— who are given to opinions. However slight their
weightage in the poll process, they do actively affect the political process
that follows a poll. Their minds—happily— are open to facts and logic. It is
worth addressing them for they influence the choices India makes.
No more fuzz:
India in the 21st century, is a different place. Several
sections of the society,hitherto sullen, have seen change and improvement.
Others , even as they remain outside the loop , are witnesses to those changes.
No longer is India, a hopeless nation. Charismatic sloganeers may have thriven
in bleaker times. Today's Indians ponder the public life. And the economy has a
huge share of their minds. Within it, concerns are of unevenness or lack of
access to the prosperity pie. Not of, despair.
So, India is
assessing solutions that will covers more citizens. Must it reverse or slow the
modernisation process, undertaken in the last decade? Or
whether the economy should be broadened and deepened. Should the economy
be muscular or cuddly. Can it be both? The time has come for everyone to make a
choice regarding a development model suited for India.
The era of ambivalence is over. More so, in the light of "China
Shining". News from there has always swayed us. In our eyes China has been
shining for a long time. When an Indian tourist comes back from China in awe of
its visible prosperity, it matters little to the overall mood. Indian
businessmen's enduring admiration for China's ways can be explained away by
their impatience with procedures in India and Left leaning politicians and
commentators wear their loyalty on their sleeves and their views can therefore
be annotated.
But when the
London Guardian headlines an article [by Jonathan Watts], "World applause
for Beijing's record achievement in creating and spreading wealth", it's
time to sit up. There are more amazing statements to contend with.
The Chinese Cut:
World Bank President James Wolfensohn attending the
'Conference on scaling up poverty reduction' in Shanghai in May, 2004, has
heaped praise on China. The UN News site, no less, reports this:
"Wolfensohn said the Chinese Communist Party's five-year economic plan was
a good example of effective poverty-reduction strategies. "Shanghai is the
obvious place to start considering ways to reduce poverty," he said.
"There is something here we need to learn about constancy and good
management."
Hilary Benn, a British
politician is quoted as saying, "China shows what can be done with the
right circumstances and the right policies."
Mark Malloch Brown of the UNDP said, "China took the lead in its
war against poverty rather than relying on development agencies to steer its
course."
High praise
indeed from those manning the bulwarks of the Free World. Reports such as these
get mirrored around widely with headlines tailored for the local readership.
Indians too have begun to make sentences starting typically with, "If
China can do it, why can't India... etc, etc, Blah Blah"
What are "the right circumstances" and "the
right policies" that Benn is referring to?
Indians must know. And never forget.
The similarities:
China's achievements, as parroted, are formidable. In the 25
years since it took to the capitalist road, poverty has fallen from 50% to less
than 10%, GDP increased from $360 billion to $12 trillion, its ranking in world
trade climbed to four and its average personal income, risen to today's $1000.
China's strategy to achieve all this—in strictly economic terms—can be simply
stated thus: remove all barriers to growth in a controlled area, viz the
eastern seaboard, create a boom there mostly through huge investments in
infrastructure, and then take the prosperity in a bag, for distribution in the
vast hinterland.
That in a nutshell, is the China story that so seduces impatient
Indians. They wonder how, two similar countries can have such different states
of development. On the face of it yes, India and China are similar. They are
similar in population, culture and began their independent existence at about
the same time. But there the similarities stop and the contrasts begin,
highlighting which is the purpose of this essay.
As we study the many strands of the China story, it is
inevitable references to India's events and experiences will keep coming up.
These are juxtaposed only to present the contrast. Preferring one road to
prosperity over another is a personal choice every Indian has the privilege to
make. He *must* make that choice though, for, without convictions, no action is
effective.
The Contrasts Catalogue:
Period and poverty:To begin with, China has been at
true-blue capitalism, for a longer time—25 years—than India's 13. During the 13
years of India's unsteady experiments with the liberalization process, poverty
has fallen from 46% to 23%. For the last 25 years, which is an identical period
of comparison, the fall has been from 55% to 23%. These figures show that the
rate of fall of poverty in India was faster paced in its open-door period, than
in China.
Now, most incredibly, Guardian says, China defines its
poverty line at $76 per year, whereas India conforms to the World Bank norm of
$365/year. Think that over deeply and then, evaluate India's performance. Also,
for a country with an average income of $1000 a year, China's definition of its
poverty line is astounding. Only less so, than world's applause for its
performance.
Health of the economy: Nor is poverty definition, a rare
case of China's non-conformity with accepted units of measure.Dr Subramaniam
Swamy says, "... China's compliance with the UN Statistical System is
partial whereas India's is total". Truth is, China's is an 'open' economy
in a 'closed' society where 'facts' are opaque and answerability is
non-existent.
It is widely suspected, that a large part of it's huge FDI
is in fact, ill-gotten local money [—'black money', you'd call it here]
round-tripping back as investment. What's worse, China uses that capital way
more inefficiently than India does, say economists Sachs and Porter.
In contrast to India, where economists, the business press,
investors, regulators and the stock-exchanges routinely dig out wrong-doing,
discuss and force corrections on its financial system, in China, all is still.
There are barely defined norms for grant and collection of loans. Rambunctious
entrepreneurs—who'd amaze even Indians, rendered cynical by their merchant
class—have scattered huge bad debts on the way to building the China-showcase.
Gordon Chang in 2001, laid out a 5 year time-line by which, China should now be
convulsing in the open as an economy is distress. Many thought his was, too
dire a prediction. The Chang prophesy hasn't arrived as yet. But who knows? The
rate of growth of China's economy is slowing down and its competitiveness is
fraying.
Rights in a left world: An Indian used to routinely being
lectured on his country's rights-record in Kashmir, in Gujarat, towards
minorities; his treatment of the lower castes, the poor, women, children; his
presumed natural tendency to deceit and bribery, and even, his 'racism' in not
enthusiastically accepting a foreigner as his prime minister... for such an
Indian, the ability of the Chinese to brazen out all external criticism must be
an object of envy.
For, China has proven that it is possible to do so and get
away with it. For 3 weeks in 1989, civilians—mostly students— gathered in
Beijing's Tienanmen Square in protest against a wide variety of social issues.
The state moved with briskness. The details of what happened may be read here,
but at the end of it, 2600 lay dead and over 7000 were injured. It was thought
that the West would break-off with China on the issue. 15 years down the line
the West is an ardent admirer and, London's Economist says "organised
dissidence is non-existent". And adds, that many of the survivors are
successful capitalists today.
In Kashmir, no 'outsider'—even if he is married to a
Kashmiri girl—may buy property under a covenant known as Article 370. In just
forty years, China has overwhelmed locals in Tibet by a planned influx of
ethnic Chinese.
Charles Horner, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute,
Washington D C, in a brief and sober history of Christianity in China says that
"it is hard to appreciate the scale of the American Protestant effort in
China from, say, 1850 until the establishment of the Communist regime in 1949.
But it was huge, and drew upon the energies and the funds of Americans in every
part of the country. It built schools, universities, and research institutions
as well as churches" . Despite that, the harvest of souls, has been poor.
The official number of Christians in China is 10 million though very greater
number, is said to be covert practitioners. The Pope has applauded them for
"not [giving] in to a church that corresponds neither to the will of
Christ, nor to the Catholic faith". China's 4 million Muslims have largely
subsumed their religious identity within a national one. Clearly, in China only
the state has the sole rights to social engineering.
Significantly, Horner adds, "Chinese Catholics are
unusually prominent in the ongoing struggle for democratic rights". And
that leads us to an understanding of the Chinese mind. Sun Yat Sen and Chiang
Kai Sheik were deeply distrusted by nationalists [-who later mutated as
communists] due to their Christian faith. That distrust of democracy as being
an instrument of the Christian West continues. What chance then, does Falun
Gong stand? You will find its clone in every Indian district, promising peace
and health. In China, it is feared as a proselytiser that will upset political
power.On another front, the one-child-per-family policy, implemented by
coercion, maybe leading to grave economic concerns today, but that is an issue
apart, from the central one of rights. Indians still recall the Emergency's
birth-control forays as a great incursion into their rights.
Also to be noted down as we move forward, are facts like the
restrictions on Chinese citizens that exist, against their freely relocating
from one place to another, and China's 'liberal' labour policy in its Free
Economic Zones, that would make a slave owner wince. As for China's law courts,
the question is not, as in India, one of slowness of justice, but, whether they
exist at all.
From all the foregoing, what lessons is an Indian to draw?
That the imperatives of economics must over-ride those of rights and justice?
That he must prepare to surrender himself for achieving an economy such as the
one claimed to have succeeded in China? One fringe in Indian society, covets
world-power status through any means—even Chinese—, so that India may stare
down all criticism. Another fringe at the other extreme, dreams of an
egalitarian utopia in India, that China is supposed to have arrived at.
The Environment: Let us conclude this exercise with a brief
look at China's environment record. For those exercised over the Tehri and
Narmada dams, the Three Gorges Dam in China would be an eerie story to read. It
will cost $26 billion, rise 180 metres and displace 2 million people. Here's
the official view and here, a contrarian. The question for us here, is not its
merits or whether it will succeed. The point is, the project has raced ahead
for seven years with barely any debate or protest within China. Similar is the
case regarding wildlife. Having decimated its considerable population of tigers
to the last animal, a hungry Chinese market is causing them to be hunted down
elsewhere too.
Closing the case In my view:
The preceding exercise may seem an excess in China baiting.
It is not. Neither is it a subliminal advocacy of China's ways over India's.
Far from it. The purpose is simply, to say this: Indians should be proud and
deem themselves fortunate, they are able to pursue—within the ambit of their
Constitution—whatever life they choose. It is important for them to be informed
of "the right circumstances and the right policies" that enabled the
Chinese miracle, to which the Hon'ble British Minister so approvingly
referred.I am an unabashed admirer of India's free-form, bazaar democracy, not
because of any misplaced patriotism, but because India has been a success even on
economic considerations. It deserves greater praise, for its success has been
produced by mankind's largest ever, universally franchised nation of the most
diverse peoples on earth. Despite the evidence of apathy, intolerance,
incompetence and corruption, it is still a fair country in many terms. It's
greatest asset is the cacophony of its million debaters engaged in analysing
every issue, with the least possible violence in attendance. In a democracy,
one must learn to hear this as a euphony.
Savour now this sepia scene, captured for us by Andre
Malraux in his 1968 book, Anti-Memoirs. He was a friend of India and was once
the Minister for Culture in De Gaulle's France. He is writing here, of a
meeting with Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru in New Delhi:
"What has been your greatest difficulty since
Independence?" I asked him.
Nehru's reply was instantaneous..."Creating a just
society by just means, I think."
And after a brief pause, "Perhaps too, creating a
secular state in a religious country. Especially when it's religion is not
founded on a book of revelation."
The choice before Indians, it seems, is between building a
just state with just means, and building a shiny state by any means. It may be
stated even, as a choice between the paths chosen by India and China.
