The relevance of China to India

Of the many subjects that are up in the air now, the economy is the one most globally commented upon. In the space of just three months, the public mood has gone from sanguinity to doubt. The 'public mood' in India, one must hasten to explain, radiates from just about 100 million or so Indians—not necessarily,the well-to-do— who are given to opinions. However slight their weightage in the poll process, they do actively affect the political process that follows a poll. Their minds—happily— are open to facts and logic. It is worth addressing them for they influence the choices India makes.

No more fuzz:

India in the 21st century, is a different place. Several sections of the society,hitherto sullen, have seen change and improvement. Others , even as they remain outside the loop , are witnesses to those changes. No longer is India, a hopeless nation. Charismatic sloganeers may have thriven in bleaker times. Today's Indians ponder the public life. And the economy has a huge share of their minds. Within it, concerns are of unevenness or lack of access to the prosperity pie. Not of, despair.

                                                                So, India is assessing solutions that will covers more citizens. Must it reverse or slow the modernisation process, undertaken in the last decade?  Or  whether the economy should be broadened and deepened. Should the economy be muscular or cuddly. Can it be both? The time has come for everyone to make a choice regarding a development model suited for India.

                                                           The era of ambivalence is over. More so, in the light of "China Shining". News from there has always swayed us. In our eyes China has been shining for a long time. When an Indian tourist comes back from China in awe of its visible prosperity, it matters little to the overall mood. Indian businessmen's enduring admiration for China's ways can be explained away by their impatience with procedures in India and Left leaning politicians and commentators wear their loyalty on their sleeves and their views can therefore be annotated.

                                 But when the London Guardian headlines an article [by Jonathan Watts], "World applause for Beijing's record achievement in creating and spreading wealth", it's time to sit up. There are more amazing statements to contend with.

The Chinese Cut:

World Bank President James Wolfensohn attending the 'Conference on scaling up poverty reduction' in Shanghai in May, 2004, has heaped praise on China. The UN News site, no less, reports this: "Wolfensohn said the Chinese Communist Party's five-year economic plan was a good example of effective poverty-reduction strategies. "Shanghai is the obvious place to start considering ways to reduce poverty," he said. "There is something here we need to learn about constancy and good management."

                                                             Hilary Benn, a British politician is quoted as saying, "China shows what can be done with the right circumstances and the right policies."

                                                                                Mark Malloch Brown of the UNDP said, "China took the lead in its war against poverty rather than relying on development agencies to steer its course."

          High praise indeed from those manning the bulwarks of the Free World. Reports such as these get mirrored around widely with headlines tailored for the local readership. Indians too have begun to make sentences starting typically with, "If China can do it, why can't India... etc, etc, Blah Blah"

What are "the right circumstances" and "the right policies" that Benn is referring to?

Indians must know. And never forget.

The similarities:

China's achievements, as parroted, are formidable. In the 25 years since it took to the capitalist road, poverty has fallen from 50% to less than 10%, GDP increased from $360 billion to $12 trillion, its ranking in world trade climbed to four and its average personal income, risen to today's $1000. China's strategy to achieve all this—in strictly economic terms—can be simply stated thus: remove all barriers to growth in a controlled area, viz the eastern seaboard, create a boom there mostly through huge investments in infrastructure, and then take the prosperity in a bag, for distribution in the vast hinterland.

                                                                                                                That in a nutshell, is the China story that so seduces impatient Indians. They wonder how, two similar countries can have such different states of development. On the face of it yes, India and China are similar. They are similar in population, culture and began their independent existence at about the same time. But there the similarities stop and the contrasts begin, highlighting which is the purpose of this essay.

As we study the many strands of the China story, it is inevitable references to India's events and experiences will keep coming up. These are juxtaposed only to present the contrast. Preferring one road to prosperity over another is a personal choice every Indian has the privilege to make. He *must* make that choice though, for, without convictions, no action is effective.

The Contrasts Catalogue:

Period and poverty:To begin with, China has been at true-blue capitalism, for a longer time—25 years—than India's 13. During the 13 years of India's unsteady experiments with the liberalization process, poverty has fallen from 46% to 23%. For the last 25 years, which is an identical period of comparison, the fall has been from 55% to 23%. These figures show that the rate of fall of poverty in India was faster paced in its open-door period, than in China.

Now, most incredibly, Guardian says, China defines its poverty line at $76 per year, whereas India conforms to the World Bank norm of $365/year. Think that over deeply and then, evaluate India's performance. Also, for a country with an average income of $1000 a year, China's definition of its poverty line is astounding. Only less so, than world's applause for its performance.

Health of the economy: Nor is poverty definition, a rare case of China's non-conformity with accepted units of measure.Dr Subramaniam Swamy says, "... China's compliance with the UN Statistical System is partial whereas India's is total". Truth is, China's is an 'open' economy in a 'closed' society where 'facts' are opaque and answerability is non-existent.

It is widely suspected, that a large part of it's huge FDI is in fact, ill-gotten local money [—'black money', you'd call it here] round-tripping back as investment. What's worse, China uses that capital way more inefficiently than India does, say economists Sachs and Porter.

In contrast to India, where economists, the business press, investors, regulators and the stock-exchanges routinely dig out wrong-doing, discuss and force corrections on its financial system, in China, all is still. There are barely defined norms for grant and collection of loans. Rambunctious entrepreneurs—who'd amaze even Indians, rendered cynical by their merchant class—have scattered huge bad debts on the way to building the China-showcase. Gordon Chang in 2001, laid out a 5 year time-line by which, China should now be convulsing in the open as an economy is distress. Many thought his was, too dire a prediction. The Chang prophesy hasn't arrived as yet. But who knows? The rate of growth of China's economy is slowing down and its competitiveness is fraying.

Rights in a left world: An Indian used to routinely being lectured on his country's rights-record in Kashmir, in Gujarat, towards minorities; his treatment of the lower castes, the poor, women, children; his presumed natural tendency to deceit and bribery, and even, his 'racism' in not enthusiastically accepting a foreigner as his prime minister... for such an Indian, the ability of the Chinese to brazen out all external criticism must be an object of envy.

For, China has proven that it is possible to do so and get away with it. For 3 weeks in 1989, civilians—mostly students— gathered in Beijing's Tienanmen Square in protest against a wide variety of social issues. The state moved with briskness. The details of what happened may be read here, but at the end of it, 2600 lay dead and over 7000 were injured. It was thought that the West would break-off with China on the issue. 15 years down the line the West is an ardent admirer and, London's Economist says "organised dissidence is non-existent". And adds, that many of the survivors are successful capitalists today.

In Kashmir, no 'outsider'—even if he is married to a Kashmiri girl—may buy property under a covenant known as Article 370. In just forty years, China has overwhelmed locals in Tibet by a planned influx of ethnic Chinese.

Charles Horner, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, Washington D C, in a brief and sober history of Christianity in China says that "it is hard to appreciate the scale of the American Protestant effort in China from, say, 1850 until the establishment of the Communist regime in 1949. But it was huge, and drew upon the energies and the funds of Americans in every part of the country. It built schools, universities, and research institutions as well as churches" . Despite that, the harvest of souls, has been poor. The official number of Christians in China is 10 million though very greater number, is said to be covert practitioners. The Pope has applauded them for "not [giving] in to a church that corresponds neither to the will of Christ, nor to the Catholic faith". China's 4 million Muslims have largely subsumed their religious identity within a national one. Clearly, in China only the state has the sole rights to social engineering.

Significantly, Horner adds, "Chinese Catholics are unusually prominent in the ongoing struggle for democratic rights". And that leads us to an understanding of the Chinese mind. Sun Yat Sen and Chiang Kai Sheik were deeply distrusted by nationalists [-who later mutated as communists] due to their Christian faith. That distrust of democracy as being an instrument of the Christian West continues. What chance then, does Falun Gong stand? You will find its clone in every Indian district, promising peace and health. In China, it is feared as a proselytiser that will upset political power.On another front, the one-child-per-family policy, implemented by coercion, maybe leading to grave economic concerns today, but that is an issue apart, from the central one of rights. Indians still recall the Emergency's birth-control forays as a great incursion into their rights.

Also to be noted down as we move forward, are facts like the restrictions on Chinese citizens that exist, against their freely relocating from one place to another, and China's 'liberal' labour policy in its Free Economic Zones, that would make a slave owner wince. As for China's law courts, the question is not, as in India, one of slowness of justice, but, whether they exist at all.

From all the foregoing, what lessons is an Indian to draw? That the imperatives of economics must over-ride those of rights and justice? That he must prepare to surrender himself for achieving an economy such as the one claimed to have succeeded in China? One fringe in Indian society, covets world-power status through any means—even Chinese—, so that India may stare down all criticism. Another fringe at the other extreme, dreams of an egalitarian utopia in India, that China is supposed to have arrived at.

The Environment: Let us conclude this exercise with a brief look at China's environment record. For those exercised over the Tehri and Narmada dams, the Three Gorges Dam in China would be an eerie story to read. It will cost $26 billion, rise 180 metres and displace 2 million people. Here's the official view and here, a contrarian. The question for us here, is not its merits or whether it will succeed. The point is, the project has raced ahead for seven years with barely any debate or protest within China. Similar is the case regarding wildlife. Having decimated its considerable population of tigers to the last animal, a hungry Chinese market is causing them to be hunted down elsewhere too.

Closing the case In my view:

The preceding exercise may seem an excess in China baiting. It is not. Neither is it a subliminal advocacy of China's ways over India's. Far from it. The purpose is simply, to say this: Indians should be proud and deem themselves fortunate, they are able to pursue—within the ambit of their Constitution—whatever life they choose. It is important for them to be informed of "the right circumstances and the right policies" that enabled the Chinese miracle, to which the Hon'ble British Minister so approvingly referred.I am an unabashed admirer of India's free-form, bazaar democracy, not because of any misplaced patriotism, but because India has been a success even on economic considerations. It deserves greater praise, for its success has been produced by mankind's largest ever, universally franchised nation of the most diverse peoples on earth. Despite the evidence of apathy, intolerance, incompetence and corruption, it is still a fair country in many terms. It's greatest asset is the cacophony of its million debaters engaged in analysing every issue, with the least possible violence in attendance. In a democracy, one must learn to hear this as a euphony.

Savour now this sepia scene, captured for us by Andre Malraux in his 1968 book, Anti-Memoirs. He was a friend of India and was once the Minister for Culture in De Gaulle's France. He is writing here, of a meeting with Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru in New Delhi:

"What has been your greatest difficulty since Independence?" I asked him.

Nehru's reply was instantaneous..."Creating a just society by just means, I think."

And after a brief pause, "Perhaps too, creating a secular state in a religious country. Especially when it's religion is not founded on a book of revelation."

The choice before Indians, it seems, is between building a just state with just means, and building a shiny state by any means. It may be stated even, as a choice between the paths chosen by India and China.